In a past life, I was a sorta-fairly-well-known sports blogger with a pretty good system for rating teams and forecasting future performance. After a failed attempt to build an online sports website I dropped out of the biz, but a few requests during the recent off-season have led me to open up a few old spreadsheets…just for fun.
Here are a few things I can share with you after two weeks:
The Detroit Lions are the best team in the league (after 2 weeks). Their 45-point victory against Kansas City has a lot to do with their high rating, but their ability to take and maintain a lead is a key indicator that this team will perform well this year. That said, their schedule doesn’t do them any favors. I still say that this is an 8-8 team by the end of the year. But hey, we’re talking about Detroit – that’s a big jump from where they have been.
The Buffalo Bills are not that great. Sure, they’re 2-0 and their offense is clicking. But let’s not forget that their first win was against Kansas City (the worst team in the league) and their second win was against Oakland (mediocre-to-average team) in the final minutes. Give them credit for pulling out a come-from-behind victory, but don’t call them elite. Or even good. These guys will hit the tough part of their schedule and fall flat.
Don’t write off Oakland just yet.
New England and Green Bay are for real, and they are my Super Bowl favorites.
Teams to keep an eye on: San Francisco (1-1, but should be 2-0), Washington, Arizona, Tennessee, Denver. All of them could push for playoff spots, although I only see San Francisco making it.
Amitai Etzioni
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