NFL Conference Dominance

I was reading up on this week’s NFL games when I was suddenly confronted by some shocking information: unless they lose three of the final four interconference games this year, the NFC will have won more games against the AFC for the first time since 1996.

As it currently stands, the NFC has won 31 of the 60 interconference games that have been played. That might not seem like a big deal, but consider this: the AFC has led in interconference play 11 times in the past 14 years, and their Super Bowl record during that same period is 9-5. The NFC led in interconference play five times during the eight years from 1989 to 1996 and their Super Bowl record was 8-0. And during the nine years from 1972 to 1980, the AFC led in interconference play eight times and won eight Super Bowls.

Okay, so correlation doesn’t necessarily imply causation. So the statisticians say. But if you go back to the beginning of the Super Bowl Era, the conference that has dominated interconference play has gone on to win the Super Bowl 23 out of 36 times if you skip years in which interconference play was tied. If you count ties, it becomes 32 out of 45 years.

This tells me that interconference play dominance (ICPD) is a real thing, and it means more than most pundits would care to admit.

Critics will say that it doesn’t matter whether one conference dominates the other during the regular season or not – the Super Bowl is between two teams, not two conferences. While that is true, I think that there they may be missing an easy-to-miss factor: that the better conference tends to have the better teams, and the better teams have a better chance to win the championship. It’s that easy, no rocket science needed.

Going back to the stats I gave above, consider the years from 1968 to 1980. The AFL/AFC was 11-2 in Super Bowls thanks to dynasties like Miami and Pittsburgh. During those same years the AFC was 273-228 against the NFL/NFC, a .545 winning percentage. Then from 1981 to 1996 the NFC dominated the Super Bowl, going 15-1 against the AFC. Here’s where it gets interesting – from 1981 to 1988 the AFC won 197 interconference games to the NFC’s 189. But from 1989 to 1996 the NFC won 230 to the AFC’s 202. If you exclude 1988, when the AFC led ICPD by 8 games, the first eight years of NFC dominance were pretty much a draw in terms of ICPD but then the final eight years were all NFC in both categories. Then from 1997 to 2006 the AFC won eight of ten Super Bowls and led in ICPD eight times.

The fluctuation is clear. First the AFC was dominant, then the NFC, then the AFC again. There was a very brief period during the ’81 to ’88 years that the AFC was keeping up during the regular season, but they were no match in championship games.

So what does this all mean? Consider the last four seasons. The New York Giants won the Super Bowl in 2007. New Orleans won in 2009 and Green Bay won in 2010, giving the NFC its first back-to-back championships since 1995-1996. The AFC led in ICPD three of those four years (2007 was a tie), but the gap between the two conferences has been shrinking and now this year we will most likely see the NFC take the ICPD lead for good.

The balance of power is shifting once again, so it shouldn’t surprise anybody to see a big streak of NFC Super Bowl victories. My guess is that we’ll see the NFC winning more interconference games as well.

I can’t help but toot my own horn here – it was back in 2005 when I wrote:

“There are several AFC teams ready to replace New England as the conference’s dominance fades –Indianapolis, San Diego, Pittsburgh, even Cincinnati. We can expect one of these teams to show off for a year or two before the NFC begins pulling even. According to prediction models, the NFC should start winning Super Bowls again by 2007 or 2008.”

The Pittsburgh Steelers certainly showed off, winning one Super Bowl and appearing in another. Indianapolis was there too.

So for those of you rooting for your NFC teams, the next ten years or so should be your best chance to see a championship. For those of you cheering on an AFC team, you’ll have to wait a little while before your team brings home a Lombardi Trophy.

Tags: afc, conference, football, nfc, nfl, super bowl