Football Season Begins in April

Yesterday’s NFL draft officially kicked off the 2012 football season. Although there are no games until September, fans are already talking about how their teams will fare. I guess its kind of like how the 2012 presidential election is in November, but we started talking about it in 2007.

The first round of the draft brought the usual mix of “we knew that would happen all along” and “OMGWTFJUSTHAPPENED”. Stanford QB Andrew Luck was selected first overall by the Colts. Luck is the Mitt Romney of football – everyone knew he would be the pick, so we all had to play the “what if” game to stay entertained. Robert Griffin III went to Washington with the second pick – again, no surprise there. Neither quarterback really impresses me – I mean, they both have amazing athletic ability, don’t get me wrong – but my gut says there’s something wrong here. Luck and Griffin are both going to start next year. That’s a great way to destroy a young and talented football player. Luck will spend most of the season on his back…maybe he should call up Sam Bradford and talk about what to expect. Griffin is more mobile but will be playing for the Redskins…I’m wary of his performance as well. These are teams that need to put a support structure in place before bringing in a franchise QB.

The rest of the draft was a whirlwind of trades. Kudos to Dallas for moving up and taking care of their secondary needs. I was impressed by the Rams’ wherewithal to trade some picks and load up in the second round, where many excellent players are still available.

The Lions addressed a clear need on the offensive line by picking up Riley Reiff in the 23rd spot. But I wonder if it wouldn’t have been more helpful to bolster the defensive secondary. The Lions should be getting Jahvid Best back in 2012 and their offense needs to add that second dimension, but the defensive secondary absolutely killed the Lions against teams like Green Bay and New Orleans. The Packers and Saints beat the Lions four times (three regular season, one post season) by attacking the corners and safeties. That has to be addressed for 2012 – scoring 30 points per game isn’t going to help when you’re giving up 40.

Reflecting on Super Bowl XLVI

Before I talk about last night’s championship game, I’d like to remind you of a few things I said this year.

From Early Season NFL Thoughts on September 19, 2011:

New England and Green Bay are for real, and they are my Super Bowl favorites.

Hey, one out of two ain’t bad. And Green Bay was right there. So close.

From NFL Conference Dominance on December 21, 2011:

The balance of power is shifting once again, so it shouldn’t surprise anybody to see a big streak of NFC Super Bowl victories. My guess is that we’ll see the NFC winning more interconference games as well.

The NFC did win the inter-conference play battle, and then the won the Super Bowl. That’s three championships in a row for the NFC…it’s clear that the balance of power has swung away from the AFC. It seems that even the NFC’s average teams will be able to beat the AFC’s best.

So let’s talk about last night’s game. Did anybody really want to win? Both teams appeared reluctant to deliver a knockout punch. The Giants had their opportunities early, staking a 9-0 lead, but the offense sputtered and Brady’s Patriots were able to recover to go up 10-9 at halftime. Then the Patriots had their opportunity to run away with the game, going ahead 17-9 in the third period. Even at 17-12 and 17-15 they had their chances to pull away but several crucial dropped passes gave the Giants just enough momentum to keep up. And then New York, pushing down-field with mere minutes to play, allowed Bill Belichick to outsmart them with that nifty “parting of the waters” defensive maneuver that gave the Patriots another chance to score with under a minute to play.

Even the final play of the game – the Hail Mary – failed to convince me that these guys wanted to win. Only one Patriot was able to put his hands on the ball…Gronkowski and Welker stood a few yards away from the ball, obviously anticipating a tip, but far enough away to not have a chance to catch the tipped ball. There had to be five Giants directly at the point where the pass was coming down.

It was, from my perspective, a truly disappointing game from start to finish. Any of the other NFC teams would have given us a much more entertaining match-up and game. And frankly, most of the other AFC playoff teams would have done the same. The Packers, Saints and 49′ers all made headlines consistently throughout the year for their stellar offenses and/or defenses. The Giants snuck into the playoffs…literally…by winning a few games down the stretch. The Patriots didn’t beat a team with a winning record until Denver in the playoffs…Baltimore and Pittsburgh would have provided a much better opponent. But instead it was a rematch of four years ago, and the game played out nearly identically. Mediocrity met mediocrity. Mistakes. Curious playcalling. And, of course, one big play by a Giants receiver that Eli Manning will undoubtedly receive most of the credit for.

Super Bowl XLVI was yet another forgettable game played by forgettable teams with a forgettable result.

Here’s hoping that next year brings us something a bit better.

NFL Championship Weekend Rundown

In my last NFL post, I correctly predicted that the Patriots and Ravens would advance to the AFC Championship Game. Woohoo!

Unfortunately, my two NFC favorites – the Packers and Saints – failed to live up to expectations. The Packers made mistake after costly mistake on both sides of the ball and lost in an embarrassing fashion to the New York Giants. In San Francisco the Saints fell behind early and, although they managed to stage several comebacks, allowed Alex Smith to lead the 49′ers down the field for a memorable game-winning touchdown with only a few seconds left on the clock.

The AFC Championship Game promises to be a doozy. The Patriots haven’t been tested very much this year, so the Ravens will be the best team they’ve played. New England developed a habit of falling behind early during the regular season and if they do so against Baltimore it’ll be tough for them to climb back. But if the Patriots can take a lead or at least hang with Baltimore until the second half, I believe that Tom Brady will make sure his team advances to yet another Super Bowl.

Keys to the game:

New England – make sure that Gronkowski gets the ball, especially in red zone situations. He can wear down the Ravens secondary and is a great target for Brady if Baltimore is bringing heavy pressure.

Baltimore – turnovers. The big story of the 2011-12 postseason has been the propensity of high-powered offenses to turn the ball over, and Baltimore can upend the Patriots if they win the turnover battle. A big part of this will be putting pressure on Brady so that he misses his throws to Welker and Gronk.

The NFC Championship Game has turned out quite differently than I imagined. With the NFC’s two best offenses gone, the storyline changes to which defense brings a better game on Sunday. New York can rack of big yards on offense, but the real star of last week’s victory was the defensive line which dominated Aaron Rogers and forced him into awkward and misguided throws. San Francisco took advantage of several New Orleans fumbles last week to stake themselves to a big early lead, and then their offense managed to score the final points of the game against a Saints defense that had more holes than a slice of swiss cheese.

Keys to the game:

New York – put pressure on Alex Smith. Smith may have shredded the Saints defense, but if the Giants defensive line can put him on his back a few times he’ll quickly lose that swagger and become the “game manager” that he was during the regular season.

San Francisco – Frank Gore needs to run for 150 yards. The 49′ers aren’t going to give up any of those ridiculous long touchdowns like they did last week, and if Gore can keep the clock on San Francisco’s side they’ll be playing in the Super Bowl.